Odds and probability
How decimal, fractional and American odds are written, how to turn each one into a probability, and what that percentage does and does not tell you.
A price is a probability in disguise. These pages show how to read it in each of the three formats and why the percentage you get is always a little too high.
- Break-even win rate: how often a bet must win at given odds
Find the share of bets that must win for a price to break even: 1 divided by the decimal odds. Worked in KES, with a table from 1.25 to 10.00.
- American (moneyline) odds to decimal: the conversion formula
Convert American (moneyline) odds to decimal with two short formulas, one for plus and one for minus prices, checked step by step in shillings.
- Decimal and fractional odds explained, with examples
Decimal odds show total return per shilling, fractional odds show profit per shilling. How to read, convert and compare both, with worked KES examples.
- How to convert betting odds into implied probability
Turn decimal, fractional and American odds into implied probability with one formula each, worked through in shillings, with a conversion table.