Use this calculator to determine whether the odds offered by a bookmaker provide you with positive expected value — also known as a value bet. A value bet exists when your estimated probability of an outcome is higher than what the bookmaker's odds imply.
A value bet occurs when you believe the chances of an outcome are greater than what the odds suggest. This gives you a long-term edge over the bookmaker. Use this calculator to input your predicted probability and the odds offered to see if there's value.
The formula to determine if a bet is valuable is:
Value = (Probability × Odds) - 1
If the result is greater than 0, you have a +EV (positive expected value) bet — a value bet.
Value = (0.45 × 2.50) - 1 = 0.125
✔️ This is a value bet.
Value = (0.45 × 2.00) - 1 = -0.10
❌ Not a value bet.